Issued: 0530hrs Wednesday 16th July 2025
Duty forecaster: Dan Graves

Thunderstorms across central and east Europe; settled and sunny in Scandinavia and west Europe.

Wednesday
Hot and sunny for Iberia and the central Mediterranean islands; small chance of a few afternoon showers over Sardinia and Corsica. A few afternoon showers develop down the spine of Italy, some heavier showers to the northeast. Showery too in Croatia and Slovenia, scattered afternoon showers developing in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Albania. Only isolated showers further south in Greece and Bulgaria, more frequent southern Türkiye.
A notable westerly breeze across north France and the Low Countries into southern Germany. Some rain in north France and Belgium, heavy showers widespread in the Netherlands and Germany. Heavy, thundery showers will stretch east into Czechia and southward into Austria and east Switzerland. Showers more scattered in Poland and Slovakia; Hungary may escape with only scattered showers and good sun. Heavy showers with a risk of developing into wider thunderstorms across Romania and northward through east Ukraine and Belarus.
Frequent heavy showers in Denmark and southern areas of Sweden and Norway. Showers may locally develop into thunderstorms. Widely showery in the Baltic States as well with a risk of thunderstorms here too. Fine, sunny, and very warm in Finland. Hot sun for central and north Scandinavia.

Thursday
More sun for Iberia and the Mediterranean islands; only some scattered light showers in north Spain. More afternoon showers in central Italy though more settled in the north compared to prior days - lots of sunshine. Showery rain with heavy bursts slips southward across the Balkans, good sun before and after rain. Greece and Türkiye should stay substantially sunny and hot.
Dry, mostly sunny, and very warm in France, only some cloud in the north extends into the Low Countries. A northwesterly breeze off the North Sea into northwest Germany, much of western Germany fairly settled with sun spells. Afternoon showers develop in east Germany, Austria, and much of south Poland, Czechia, and Slovakia. Widespread afternoon showers develop over Romania and Bulgaria. More scattered Ukraine and Belarus, but always the risk of becoming heavy and thundery.
Showery rain drifts around Denmark and southernmost Sweden, generally improving as the day goes with sunny spells. Most of Sweden north of the south coast will be sunny and hot. Norway and Finland will be similarly sunny and hot. Heavy showers in Lithuania and Latvia, clearer Estonia; likely sunny and very warm.