Tropical Storm YUTU Advisory mar, 23-10

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 31W (YUTU) WARNING NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 31W (YUTU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE AS RAIN BANDS WRAPPED
TIGHTER TOWARD A DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION WHERE AN EVOLVING
PINHOLE EYE IS BECOMING APPARENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EVOLVING EYE AND LINED UP WITH A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 222036Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A
SMALL ADJUSTMENT FOR VERTICAL SLANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65
KNOTS IS BASED ON EQUIVALENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T4.0/65KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY
31W IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, AND IS
DRIFTING OVER WARM (30-32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STEERED BY THE STR, TY 31W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD, THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AND ALLOW FOR CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION,
REACHING 125 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH GRADUAL SPREADING UP TO 205 NM AT TAU 72,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY YUTU IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL,
FUELING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY OF 130
KNOTS BY TAU 96. AFTERWARD, DIMINISHING OUTFLOW WILL STIFLE AND
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 125 KNOTS BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY, SPREADING OUT TO OVER 700 NM BY TAU
120. NOTABLE RIGHT-OF-TRACK OUTLIERS INCLUDE AEMN AND CTCX THAT
PREDICT AN EARLY, SHARP RECURVE TO THE NORTH. THE ONLY LEFT-OF-TRACK
OUTLIER IS AFUM, OFFERING A FLAT WESTWARD SOLUTION. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS LAID JUST LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE UNLIKELY EARLY
RECURVE SOLUTIONS. DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE
STILL IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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