MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (HAIMA) WARNING NR 02// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTH OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH IS BEING OBSCURED BY DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 142104Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM ALL QUADRANTS. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 142331Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWING A DEFINED LLCC WITH 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. TS 25W IS LOCATED IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (5- 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM NEAR 30 CELSIUS AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS VERY HIGH. TS HAIMA IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. B. EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE NEAR TERM AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 25W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND REACH SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY UNDER THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. A STRONGER STR TO THE NORTH WILL FORCE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED. BASED ON THE CONTINUED MODEL STABILITY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN