Tropical Storm MAWAR Advisory sáb, 02-06

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 04W (MAWAR) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 04W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SMALL, IRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE
OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME MORE
SYMMETRICAL WITH SMOOTHER EDGES. A 012353Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE WITH A LARGE, BUT FRAGMENTED BAND FARTHER TO THE EAST. THE
LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST-WESTERN SECTORS
CONTINUES TO TREND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE
ANIMATION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45-55 KNOTS FROM RJTD AND PGTW/KNES
RESPECTIVELY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOW GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) DUE TO
A SUSTAINED POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE OVER THE LLCC. HOWEVER,
SLIGHTLY STRONGER VWS (15-20 KNOTS) NEAR 20N MAY BE CAUSING THE
LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION NOTED EARLIER. TS 04W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) WHICH IS ANCHORED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN
COAST OF CHINA, CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD AND WILL CAUSE A
BREAK IN THE STEERING STR. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TS 04W WILL
SLOW DOWN AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE COMPLETED THE RE-CURVE AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARDS
TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TS 04W WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) REMAIN FAVORABLE NEAR
28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW BECOMES ENHANCED VIA A
CONNECTION WITH THE MID- LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AFTER A FORECAST
MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS ON 04/00Z, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN BY TAU 72 DUE TO INCREASING VWS FROM THE ZONAL WESTERLIES
AND DECREASING SST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS MAWAR IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND GET ABSORBED INTO THE STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER MUCH COOLER SST (LESS THAN
25C) AND INTO HIGHER VWS. BY TAU 96, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT GETS EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE TIGHT ENVELOPE IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE. THIS FORECAST AGREES WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS (CONW) BUT
IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT DURING TAU 72 WHEN THE LLCC IS CLOSEST TO
OKINAWA. THIS IS TO OFFSET THE SUDDEN POLEWARD JUMP IN THE GFS
TRACKER DURING THIS TIME. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CPA TO
KADENA, AB, HAS DECREASED BY 33 NM FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST;
HOWEVER, THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE CONW.//
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