MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 45// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 25W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 223 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM STILL RETAINS CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A 35-NM RAGGED EYE. A 240324Z NOAA-19 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS CURVED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYMMETRIC LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 25W IS TRACKING UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER, THE SHEAR VECTOR IS PARALLEL TO THE MOTION VECTOR, WHICH IS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO RETAIN CENTRAL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ADDITIONALLY, VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS OFFSETTING THE VWS. TY 25W IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 25W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TY 25W WILL COMPLETE ETT NEAR TAU 24 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN