Tropical Storm HAGIBIS Advisory sáb, 14-06

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (HAGIBIS) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 183 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), WHICH FORMED FROM A MONSOON DEPRESSION, HAS CONSOLIDATED
WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A DEFINED CENTER. A 140426Z GCOM-W1 36V GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC AND SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. A 140126Z ASCAT IMAGE
INDICATES THAT GALE-FORCE WINDS (35 KNOTS) HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS
CONTRACTED TO APPROXIMATELY 70 NM, WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO IMPROVED OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS AS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION HAS FILLED AND SHIFTED
WESTWARD, ALLOWING DIVERGENCE OVER THE LLCC TO INCREASE. TS 07W IS
TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU
48 THEN THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS
POLEWARD OF THE STR AXIS INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH
OF THE STR. GFS, GFDN AND HWRF SHOW A STRONGER STR AND DEPICT A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO TAIWAN BEFORE TURNING THE SYSTEM
NORTHEASTWARD OVER LAND. NAVGEM, ECMWF AND JGSM INDICATE A WEAKER
STR AND TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER LAND.
ALL THESE MODELS INDICATE DISSIPATION OVER LAND. THE SOLE OUTLIER IS
COAMPS-TC WHICH TRACKS A 35- TO 45-KNOT SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD (INTO
THE STR) OVER WATER TOWARD TAIWAN. BASED ON UPPER-AIR DATA, THE JTWC
FORECAST FAVORS A NORTHWARD TRACK, HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRACK DUE TO POSITIONAL UNCERTAINTY AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THE NORTHEAST TURN. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 24 BUT IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND PRIOR TO RE-EMERGING OVER THE EAST
CHINA SEA AFTER TAU 72.//
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