MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (TAPAH) WARNING NR 15// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (TAPAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS STARTING TO UNRAVEL AS DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME SHEARED OVER 100NM FROM THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON EXPOSED LLCC SEEN IN THE MSI LOOP WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 35 KNOTS BASED UPON THE DECREASING DEFINITION OF THE LLCC AND IS SUPPORTED BY FALLING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AS STRONG (40 TO 50 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS COMPLETELY OFFSETTING THE WESTERLY DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW. TS 06W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS TAPAH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE RECURVING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF PERSISTENTLY STRONG VWS, COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND ABSORPTION INTO THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY. THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN NNNN