MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01C (HALOLA) WARNING NR 44// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 211 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MUTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CORE OF THE CYCLONE INTO A WELL-CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CIMSS TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION SHOWS A RADIALLY EXPANDING MOISTURE FIELD WITH AN ESTABLISHED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. A 202142Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A DEVELOPING BANDING EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION HAS BEEN ACCELERATED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TS 01C IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS HALOLA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STR THROUGH TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH GOOD OUTFLOW, LOW VWS, AND SSTS ABOVE 28 CELSIUS. BEYOND TAU 24, VWS WILL REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS WHICH WILL CAUSE THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION TO DECREASE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. TS HALOLA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO VWS ABOVE 30 KNOTS, DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW FROM A BUILDING MID-LATITUDE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST, AND SSTS DROPPING BELOW 26 CELSIUS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS OUT AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO VARYING DEGREES IN THE TIMING OF THE RE-CURVE. THIS FORECAST HAS AGAIN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FURTHER WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE EXTENT OF THE STR TO THE NORTH. THIS UNCERTAINTY LEADS TO AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. AT THIS TIME, TS HALOLA IS NOT EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION SOUTH OF JAPAN DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR 40 DEGREES LATITUDE.// NNNN NNNN