Tropical Storm NEOGURI Advisory vie, 04-07

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (EIGHT)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 173 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI), IN ASSOCIATION WITH RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUAM, DEPICTS
A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A
DEVELOPING EYEWALL APPARENT IN A RECENT 032214Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS.
BUILDING CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS
CONTINUES TO WRAP MORE TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC, INCREASING THE ACCURACY
FOR THE POSITIONING OF TS 08W. BASED ON THE PREVIOUSLY LISTED SSMIS
IMAGE, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE IMPROVING EYEWALL STRUCTURE. DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN IN THE 2.0
TO 2.5 RANGE, AND APPEARS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THE CURRENT
STRUCTURE OF TS 08W. A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) REMAINS
THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE FOR TS 08W.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED AT ALL POSITIONS DUE
TO THE RECENT IMPROVEMENTS IN STRUCTURE. THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 125 KTS AT TAU 96.
   B. TS 08W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. MID-LATITUDE
TRANSITORY LOWS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR,
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AROUND TAU 72.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS, WITH TS 08W
TURNING TO THE NORTH APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST OF OKINAWA. THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WESTWARD DRIFT COULD OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 72
AND 96 AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. TS 08W WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS OVER VERY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST), WITH A STONG SOUTHWESTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND
AN IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 08W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, TURNING TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST BY TAU 120 AS THE STR BEGINS TO SEE INCREASED INFLUENCE
FROM A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN,
WHICH IS SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST, THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. TS 08W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF
125 KNOTS BY TAU 96 DUE TO THE IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. BY TAU 120
THE INCREASED MID-LATITUDE INTERACTION, DECREASING SST VALUES, AND
THE START OF LAND INTERACTION WILL BEGIN THE WEAKENING PROCESS.
ALTHOUGH THE TS 08W WILL REMAIN AN INTENSE SYSTEM AS IT MAKES LAND-
FALL INTO SOUTHERN JAPAN. THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK HAS
INCREASED TO HIGH AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TIGHTEN FURTHER THROUGH
TAU 120, EXCLUDING GFDN WHICH REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST.//
NNNN
NNNN