Tropical Storm CHAN-HOM Advisory jue, 30-07

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 84 NM
WEST OF UJELANG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR DEPICTS DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH
SOME FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LLCC. A 301736Z SSMIS
PARTIAL PASS SHOWS CONTINUED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF
THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REINFORCES THIS WITH 10-15 KNOTS OF
EASTERLY VWS AFFECTING TS CHAN-HOM. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
TO 35 KNOTS AS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. TS 09W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TS 09W WILL MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 72 WITH
THE STR BEING THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE. BEYOND THAT, INTERACTION
WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH MAY HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON CHAN-
HOM'S TRACK, FORCING A TRACK SPEED SLOW-DOWN BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72
AS WELL AS A FLATTER TRACK, WITH PERHAPS A SOUTHERN COMPONENT. WHILE
MODERATE VWS WILL PERSIST, THERE WILL BE HIGH OHC VALUES ALLOWING
THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
DURING THIS PERIOD.
   C. IN THE EXTENDING FORECAST PERIOD, EXPECT TS 09W TO ABSORB THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE (94W) AS IT CHOKES
THE WEAKER SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE STRUGGLES WITH THE OVERALL
STEERING ENVIRONMENT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS
AGREEMENT OF A GENERALLY MORE NORTHWARD TRACK AS THE STEERING STR
RETREATS TO THE EAST. DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACKS
AMONG AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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