Tropical Storm ONE Advisory jue, 23-07

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 01C (HALOLA) WARNING NR 52//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 458 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A COMPACT CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION (APPROXIMATELY 90 NM
DIAMETER) SURROUNDING A 5 NM EYE. A 222227Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION BASED ON THE SMALL EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90
KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY HINDERED DUE TO CONVERGENT FLOW OVER
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER,
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS VIGOROUS. TY 01C CONTINUES TO TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTH.
THE 22/12Z 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N 142E WITH
A RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO TAIWAN WITH BROAD TROUGHING
AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN CHINA AND THE WEST SEA. IN
GENERAL, THIS PATTERN OF STRONG RIDGING HAS MAINTAINED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROPAGATING NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY HALOLA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU
48. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, ANALYSIS DATA PROVIDES SOLID EVIDENCE OF A
STRONG, PERSISTENT STR WITH NO DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMMINENT, WHICH
WILL SERVE TO MAINTAIN THE WESTWARD TRACK LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. CONSEQUENTLY, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT
WESTWARD WITH THE MORE RELIABLE JGSM, GFS, AEMN AND ECMWF TRACKERS
SUPPORTING A TRACK JUST NORTHEAST OF OKINAWA AND NORTH OF KYUSHU,
JAPAN. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE NOW
SUPPORTS THE FORECAST TRACK AS WELL AS THE OFFICIAL JMA FORECAST. TY
01C IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH TAU 24, THEN IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
LAND INTERACTION AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SST.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD
AND RE-CURVE AS IT ROUNDS THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING
STR AND BEGINS TO TRACK INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW, WHICH
SHOULD ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM. TY 01C WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO
STRONG VWS, COLD SST (23 TO 25C) AND INCREASED LAND INTERACTION. TY
01C IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 120 DUE TO VERY COLD SST AND
STRONG VWS. THERE IS NO BAROCLINIC SUPPORT FOR EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION OR A RAPID ACCELERATION SCENARIO. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY, THEREFORE, THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EXACT TIMING OF THE RE-CURVE AND LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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