Tropical Storm DOLPHIN Advisory vie, 15-05

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 34//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM EAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY INCLUDING A 142251Z GPM IMAGE
REVEALS SLIGHTLY-BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN APPARENT
MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND THE
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 95 KNOTS BASED ON CONSENSUS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TYPHOON
DOLPHIN IS NOW LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. TYPHOON 07W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARD A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TYPHOON DOLPHIN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MODIFIED STR. MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE VWS WILL PERSIST; HOWEVER, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ARE EXPECTED, LEADING TO A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION RATE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. BY TAU 36, THE
STEERING STR IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING
TYPHOON 07W TO BEGIN THE TURN POLEWARD. AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS,
TY DOLPHIN WILL GAIN AN INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL FROM THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ALLOWING IT TO FURTHER INTENSIFY.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY DOLPHIN WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AND
MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. CONCURRENTLY, THE COMBINED
EFFECTS OF INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL IMPACT THE SYSTEM,
LEADING TO ITS WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN CONSISTENT ON A
TRACK BETWEEN GUAM AND SAIPAN. THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
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