Tropical Storm DOLPHIN Advisory jue, 14-05

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 30//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 449 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY INCLUDING 132334Z
METOP-A IMAGE DEPICT PERSISTENT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI, PGTW SATELLITE FIX
AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON CONSENSUS DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TYPHOON DOLPHIN REMAINS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING OFFSET BY THE
RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TYPHOON 07W
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN ELONGATED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. OVER THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS, A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO
THE NORTH WILL CAUSE A BREAK IN THE STR, MODIFYING AND SLIGHTLY
SHIFTING TY 07W NORTHWESTWARD. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST), UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE,
LEADING TO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE MODIFIED STR IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD
AND REORIENT TO THE EAST ALLOWING TYPHOON 07W TO TURN POLEWARD. THIS
POLEWARD TRACK WILL EXPOSE THE CYCLONE TO INCREASED UPPER-LEVEL WIND
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, TRIGGERING RAPID
INTENSIFICATION AND REACHING SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 96.
CONCURRENTLY, TY 07W IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND SLOWLY
BEGIN ITS WEAKENING TREND AS IT FURTHER TRACKS INTO AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT;
HOWEVER, THERE IS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK. THE CURRENT
JTWC TRACK FORECAST HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF GUAM TO REFLECT
THIS CHANGE AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
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