Tropical Storm TAPAH Advisory jue, 01-05

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (TAPAH) WARNING NR
15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (TAPAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297 NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
A RAPIDLY WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS
STARTING TO UNRAVEL AS DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME SHEARED OVER 100NM
FROM THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON EXPOSED LLCC
SEEN IN THE MSI LOOP WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN DECREASED TO 35 KNOTS BASED UPON THE DECREASING DEFINITION OF
THE LLCC AND IS SUPPORTED BY FALLING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AS STRONG (40 TO
50 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS COMPLETELY OFFSETTING THE
WESTERLY DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW. TS 06W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS TAPAH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE RECURVING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF PERSISTENTLY
STRONG VWS, COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND ABSORPTION INTO
THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY. THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK
WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
NNNN