Tropical Storm NANMADOL Advisory lun, 03-07

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (NANMADOL)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 05W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM WEST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT AND
SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH IMPROVING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IMAGERY FROM
THE MIYAKOJIMA RADAR STATION SHOWS MODERATE RAIN BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER AND IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL POSITION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 45 KNOTS
IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5
(45 TO 55 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE
WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE WESTERLY JET AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. A TUTT CELL FORMING TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST IS STARTING TO
ENHANCE THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SSTS ARE ALSO WARM NEAR 29
CELSIUS. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE EAST IS CURRENTLY
STEERING TS 05W ON A NORTHWARD COURSE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR SHIFTING TO A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK IN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
SUPPORTING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO 60 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 12 THE
SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER A DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENT AS SSTS WILL COOL
CONSIDERABLY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE JUST PRIOR TO
MAKING LANDFALL NEAR SASEBO, JAPAN AROUND TAU 24. LAND INTERACTION
WILL WEAKEN TS 05W AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS HONSHU
TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. TS 05W WILL COMPLETE ETT
BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, WITH
THE FORECAST TRACK PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.//
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