Tropical Storm MOLAVE Advisory mié, 12-08

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR
15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
THAT IS ELONGATED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WITH FLARING CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO THE STRONG 20 TO 25
KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). AN 112206Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
A WELL-DEFINED AND ELONGATED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE ABOVE IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON A PREVIOUS ASCAT PASS
AND SUPPORTED BY THE TIGHT SPIRAL LOW LEVEL BANDING. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH THE STORM EMBEDDED IN
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS CREATING THE MODERATE VWS BUT IS ALSO
PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS)
ABOVE 28 CELSIUS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND ARE
HELPING SUSTAIN THE CURRENT CONVECTION. TS MOLAVE IS TRACKING WITHIN
THE WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGING.
   B. TS 15W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF BOTH THE STR TO THE SOUTH AND THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL, SSTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 26 CELSIUS THROUGH
TAU 24 ALLOWING MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 24,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
LEADING TO THE CYCLONE BEGINNING ITS WEAKENING TREND. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO FURTHER INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 36. TS MOLAVE WILL COMPLETE
ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
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