Tropical Storm NARI Advisory lun, 14-10

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (NARI) WARNING NR 22//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 24W (NARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 168 NM EAST OF DA NANG,
VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 7 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS TY 24W HAS
IMPROVED ITS CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, WITH MORE WELL-DEFINED TIGHTLY
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW FIX AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM
A 132231Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 85 KNOTS BASED ON A RANGE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM 77-90 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE, WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW OBSERVED IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AND
LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
A RECENT SST ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 24W HAS MOVED OVER A POOL OF
WARMER (28 DEGREES CELSIUS) WATER. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM IS NOW INTERACTING WITH LAND. TY 24W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 24W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF HUE, VIETNAM JUST
BEFORE TAU 24. THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN SST AND FAVORABLE VWS SHOULD
ALLOW TY 24W TO MAINTAIN OR EVEN SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 75-80 KNOTS AT LANDFALL,
AND THEN RAPIDLY DISSIPATE DUE TO TERRAIN AND FRICTIONAL EFFECTS.
FULL DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS WESTWARD TRACK, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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