Tropical Storm VONGFONG Advisory vie, 03-10

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 102 NM
NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS FURTHER CONSOLIDATION OF A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ASSOCIATED PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. A
022257Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE CONTINUES TO DEPICT FORMATIVE BANDING
LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND MORE WELL
DEFINED DEEP CONVECTION ALL ALONG THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SET WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND
BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
35 KNOTS BASED ON THE LEVEL OF CONSOLIDATION THE SYSTEM HAS
EXHIBITED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW.
TS 19W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TS 19W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP STR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS, REACHING TYPHOON
STRENGTH JUST WEST OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS. LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWESTERN UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP STR.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
AND GOOD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW TS 19W TO CONTINUE TO
STRENGTH TO REACH ITS PEAK, DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD, OF 90 KNOTS
AT TAU 120. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE SYSTEM TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK TO
18W, EXPECT SLIGHTLY LESS OVERALL INTENSIFICATION DUE TO THE
ABSORPTION OF SOME OF THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT BY THE PREVIOUS STORM
TRACK. THROUGH THE LATER FORECAST TAUS, THERE IS SOME DISPARITY IN
THE MODELS WITH REGARD TO THE EXTENT OF HOW FAR TO THE WEST THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK AND WHERE, AND EVEN IF, TS 19W WILL RECURVE INTO A
BREAK IN THE STR. AS SUCH, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST BASED ON THE LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE AND POOR CONFIDENCE IN
THE LATER FORECAST TIMES.//
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