MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01C (HALOLA) WARNING NR 28// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1160 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VWS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 01C WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RELAX ALLOWING FOR THE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY, REACHING 70 KNOTS BY TAU 72. C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS HALOLA WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS. THE SYSTEM WILL PEAK AT 80 KNOTS BY TAU 96. AFTERWARDS, COLDER SSTS AND INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TS 01C TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FOREAST.// NNNN NNNN