Tropical Storm GONI Advisory mar, 25-08

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 45//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 72 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 26
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED A SOLID CONVECTIVE CORE WITH EMBEDDED CENTER. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP,
RADAR OBSERVATIONS AND GROUND STATION OBSERVATIONS FROM JMA. THE
INTENSITY HAS BEEN DROPPED TO 80 KNOTS BASED ON THE DECAY OF THE
SYSTEM DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH MOUNT UNZEN AND THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE SEFURI MOUNTAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN AN AREA OF HIGH
(40 TO 50 KNOT) OF IN-PHASE VWS (THUS NEGATING THE AFFECTS TO ABOUT
20-30 KNOTS OF VWS). TY 16W IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF A BUILDING STR TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 16W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, STEERED BY THE BUILDING STR. AFTERWARDS, THE FORECAST TRACK
WILL TURN MORE POLEWARD AS AN INDUCED STR NORTHEAST ASSUMES STEERING
AND THE SYSTEM IS TAKEN INTO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO DECAY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION IN THE
NEAR TERM AND LOW SSTS AND OHC AS WELL AS INCREASED VWS PAST TAU 12.
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BY TAU 24.
EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST.//
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