Tropical Storm GONI Advisory dom, 16-08

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (GONI) WARNING NR
09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 53 NM WEST
OF TINIAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING (TCB). THIS CONSOLIDATION IS EVIDENT IN GUAM
RADAR IMAGERY, WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEVELOPING EYE LENDING GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM RJTD AND PGTW. DESPITE THE STATIC
DVORAK ESTIMATES, A 152100Z SSMIS REVEALS IMPROVED STRUCTURE BANDING
STRUCTURE, WHICH SUGGESTS THAT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTENSITY OF 60
KNOTS IS FEASIBLE, HOWEVER, WILL HOLD AT 55 KNOTS FOR NOW AND RE-
EVALUATE AT THE NEXT WARNING CYCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN
IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS AND DUAL OUTFLOW, WHICH IS
FUELING THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION TREND. TS 16W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STR. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AND GFDN, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO BETTER INDICATE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) THROUGH TAU 48. THIS RI FORECAST IS BASED ON A
NUMBER OF KEY FACTORS: THE LLCC IS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING; OUTFLOW
HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW; HIGH SHIPS RI
VALUES; AND RI IS FORECASTED IN BOTH THE HWRF AND COAMPS-TC MODELS.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 16W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY VWS AND
LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT (AGAIN, WITH THE EXCETION OF THE NAVGEM AND GFDN
OUTLIERS), THEREFORE, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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