Tropical Storm SOUDELOR Advisory vie, 07-08

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 32//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEPENING CONVECTIVE CORE SURROUNDING AN 18NM EYE
WITH DEEP BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERIES. THE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR. A 062244Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN IMPROVED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH A
CONSTRICTING MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE SMALL EYE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 105 KNOTS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF INCREASING DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND INCREASING SATCON
INTENSITY ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RADIAL
OUTFLOW, INDICATED BY A POINT SOURCE ANALYZED OVER THE TYPHOON;
HOWEVER, DRY AIR IS EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP. TY SOUDELOR IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 13W WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STR.
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TY 13W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 115 KNOTS
DUE TO GOOD OUTFLOW, INCREASING SST AND INCREASING OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. JUST BEFORE TAU 24, TY 13W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
OVER TAIWAN THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRANSITS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND RE-EMERGE OVER THE TAIWAN STRAIT AS A WEAK
TYPHOON. JUST AFTER TAU 36, TY SOUDELOR WILL MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL
OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF CHINA NEAR QUANZHOU. BY TAU 48, TY
SOUDELOR WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STEERING STR AND
TURN POLEWARD. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS IT TRACKS
INLAND, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD OR POSSIBLY SOONER. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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