Tropical Storm FOURTEEN Advisory mar, 04-08

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN)
WARNING NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 253
NM SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH SHALLOW
FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
25 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND KNES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY AIR
INTRUSION AND MODERATE WESTERLY VWS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 14W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DETERIORATE AS AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ENGULFS THE SYSTEM, INCREASING THE
VWS AND PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL CAUSE TD 14W TO WEAKEN AND
FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR
POSSIBLY SOONER. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A
GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
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