Tropical Storm PEIPAH Advisory dom, 06-04

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (PEIPAH) WARNING NR
13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 05W (PEIPAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 182 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT PGTW AND
RJTD SATELLITE FIXES AND ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY VALUES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND RECENT AUTOMATED SATELLITE
CONSENSUS DATA. TS 05W CONTINUES TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
TO THE NORTH. TS 05W LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS,
IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS
SHEAR HAS CONFINED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A CONVECTIVE BAND ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER CIRCULATION.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED VERY SLIGHTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING.
   B. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS OVER WARM WATER AND FAVORABLE WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
OFFSET THE NEGATIVE INFLUENCE OF PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR.
   C. THE MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION TREND WILL BE DISRUPTED AFTER TAU
72 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER LAND, ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO RELAX SLIGHTLY AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVE DURING THE
SAME PERIOD AS A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH.
NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT,
ALTHOUGH THE JGSM, JAPANESE ENSEMBLE, AND NAVGEM SHOW THE SYSTEM
TRACKING WESTWARD A BIT FARTHER TO THE NORTH IN THE LATEST RUN.
HOWEVER, THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED BY THIS
MODEST SHIFT, AND THERE IS STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
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