Tropical Storm DOLPHIN Advisory mié, 13-05

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 26//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 223 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A LLCC WITH A SMALL DIMPLE
FEATURE FORMING. A 122301Z GPM IMAGE SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
AND SOMEWHAT ELONGATED BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
THE ABOVE IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN RAISED TO 65 KTS DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE
OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS THE DVROAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
HAVE GOOD SINGLE CHANNEL OUTFLOW WITH LOW VWS WITH TY DOLPHIN
TRACKING ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TY 07W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST AS
THE STEERING STR CONTINUES TO ELONGATE AND TRACK TO THE WEST. AS A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CREATES A BREAK IN THE STR, EXPECT TY DOLPHIN TO
TURN POLEWARD AND TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME, THERE WILL
BE AN ACCELERATION IN INTENSIFICATION RATE AS THE SYSTEM GAINS
ACCESS TO DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. BY TAU 72, THE STR WILL BE FULLY
BUILT TO THE NORTHEAST OF TY 07W.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TS DOLPHIN WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR AXIS. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE, POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR A
RAPID INTENSIFICATION SITUATION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH LIMITED SPREAD, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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