Tropical Storm JULIA Advisory jue, 15-09

ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM JULIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016
0300 UTC THU SEP 15 2016

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 32.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)

NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)

GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   3( 7)

RALEIGH NC     34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)

ROCKY MT NC    34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   3( 7)

FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   3(10)   2(12)

CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   2( 8)

CHERRY PT NC   34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   2( 7)   3(10)

NEW RIVER NC   34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   3(11)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   3(11)

SURF CITY NC   34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   3(10)   3(13)   3(16)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   4( 4)   3( 7)   4(11)   3(14)   3(17)   3(20)

BALD HEAD ISL  34  2  10(12)   5(17)   4(21)   5(26)   3(29)   2(31)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)

FLORENCE SC    34  1   3( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   5(14)   2(16)   3(19)

COLUMBIA SC    34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)   3(13)

LITTLE RIVER   34  4  11(15)   4(19)   3(22)   6(28)   3(31)   2(33)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  9  12(21)   4(25)   4(29)   5(34)   3(37)   2(39)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)

GEORGETOWN SC  34 30  12(42)   4(46)   1(47)   5(52)   2(54)   1(55)
GEORGETOWN SC  50  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)

CHARLESTON SC  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
CHARLESTON SC  50  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

BEAUFORT MCAS  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)

ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)

AUGUSTA GA     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   4(13)

SAVANNAH GA    34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)   8(14)   3(17)   5(22)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

KINGS BAY GA   34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   3(11)   3(14)

WAYCROSS GA    34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   4(12)

MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   3(11)   2(13)

JACKSONVILLE   34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)   1(11)

GAINESVILLE FL 34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)

DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   2( 8)

THE VILLAGES   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)

ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)

COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)

PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)

FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)

TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)

ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)

APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)

MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECASTER AVILA