Tropical Storm GONI Advisory lun, 24-08

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 41//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
  TYPHOON (TY) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 109 NM WEST OF
KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
SOLID CONVECTIVE CORE SURROUNDING A 25 NM DIAMETER EYE. THE MSI ALSO
INDICATES SOME PRESSURE IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPERHY OF THE CORE, WHICH IS ALSO OBSERVED IN 232233Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON THE EYE FEATURE IN MSI AND RADAR FIXES FROM RJTD. OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS, TY 16W HAS TRACKED SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK, RESULTING IN A NARROWING OF THE CPA
DISTANCE TO KADENA AB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD, AND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE
SLIGHT DEGRADATION IN CONVECTION. THE 34 AND 50 KNOT WIND FIELD
AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY WAS ALSO ADJUSTED UPWARD BASED ON THE
LASTEST TC STRUCTURE GUIDANCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW IN AN AREA OF LOW (10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TY 16W IS TRACKING UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SSTS ARE VERY FAVORABLE AT 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE, HOWEVER, SMALL CHANGES TO THE KADENA
AB CPA AND WIND FIELD WERE MADE AS NOTED ABOVE.
   B. TY 16W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS, STEERED BY THE BUILDING NER. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME WINDOW, HOWEVER
INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES GONI HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM
INTENSITY, CONSISTENT WITH THE SLIGHTLY DEGRADED DEEP CONVECTION AND
FALLING DVORAK FINAL-T VALUES.  AFTER TAU 24, THE FORECAST TRACK
WILL TURN MORE POLEWARD, EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE EAST AND NORTH ASSUMES STEERING. GUIDANCE
CALLS FOR A STEADY DISSIPATION TREND BEGINNING BY TAU 24 DUE TO
HIGHER VWS, LAND, INTERACTION WITH KYUSHU, AND EVENTUALLY THE COOLER
WATERS OF THE SEA OF JAPAN. AT THE SAME TIME, TY 16W WILL BEGIN AN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WHICH SHOULD COMPLETE BEFORE TAU 72, AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND OVER THE DRPK AND CHINA. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 24, THEN SPREADS WITH VARYING
DEGREES OF A NORTHWESTWARD TURN. AN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE MEMBERS GIVES HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST.//
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