Tropical Storm HAGIBIS Advisory mar, 17-06

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (HAGIBIS)
WARNING NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 22
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BANDS THAT HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO
THE LLCC. A 162032Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
(20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. HAGIBIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AND IS
EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN SHOWING A SLIGHTLY NORTHERN TRACK, ALL
OTHER TRACKERS INCLUDING GFS, NAVGEM AND COAMPS-TC ARE IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
NNNN