MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 07// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 644 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A DIMPLE FEATURE - PRECURSOR TO THE FORMATION OF AN EYE - AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION FURTHER DEEPENED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 10W WILL BEGIN TRACKING MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS JAPAN WEAKENS THE STR. THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE. THESE, PLUS PERENNIALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA WILL PROMOTE RAPID INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 105 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS THE CYCLONE HEADS TOWARD TAIWAN. C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS MATMO WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS THE STR REMAINS SOLID, UNPERTURBED BY A SECONDARY, ALBEIT WEAKER, TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST, HOWEVER, INTERACTION WITH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TAIWAN AND THE CHINESE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 85 KNOTS BY END OF FORECAST. THE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS LAID JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE JAPANESE TRACKERS THAT ARE RIGHT OUTLIERS.// NNNN NNNN