Tropical Storm MALOU Advisory lun, 25-10

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (MALOU) WARNING NR
005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.1N 138.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 379 NM NORTH OF ULITHI
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FORMATIVE
BANDING WITH LARGE AREAS OF DEEP SUSTAINED CONVECTION REMAINING
WEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
UPON MULTIPLE AGENCY FIXES AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM A BULLSEYE
242226Z ASCAT-A PASS INDICATING MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25-30 KTS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MULTIPLE AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA. 34 KNOT WIND RADII
BASED ON THE BULLSEYE 242226Z ASCAT-A PASS.
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 42 KTS AT 242217Z
   CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 250110Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM MALOU IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. SHORTLY AFTER TAU
48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ROUNDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, MAKE
A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST, AND THEN INCREASE INTENSITY TO
TYPHOON STRENGTH. TS MALOU WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KTS THROUGH TAU 96. THEREAFTER, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ENCOUNTERING COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES, AND BEGINS TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
REGARDS TO THE FORECAST TRACK FOR TS 25W, WITH ALMOST ALL MODELS
CONTINUING TO SHOW A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOLLOWED
BY A RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST STARTING AT TAU 48. NVGM IS STILL THE
MAJOR OUTLIER OF THE MULTIPLE MODEL CONSENSUS. EXCLUDING NVGM,
CROSS-TRACK MODEL SPREAD IS LESS THAN 120 NM ALL THE WAY UP TO TAU
72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO
THE INTENSITY FORECAST, WITH MOST MODELS INDICATING A STEADY
INTENSIFICATION WITH A PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN TAUS 72 AND 96.
THEREAFTER, A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST. THE MODELS CURRENTLY DO NOT AGREE ON THE PEAK
INTENSITY WITH HWRF PEAKING AT 100 KTS AND GFS PEAKING AT 70 KTS,
WITH MOST OTHERS AROUND 70-90 KTS. TO OFFSET HWRF, THE FORECAST
INTENSITY IS PLACED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN CONSENSUS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72 - 120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72 - 120 HR: LOW//
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