MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (FRANCISCO ) WARNING NR 05// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 26W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A INCREASINGLY CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A RAGGED EYE FEATURE. A 170004Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE AS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE CONTINUES TO PERSIST AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS IMPROVED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 70 KNOTS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW OF 65 KNOTS TO SHOW THE CONTINUED INCREASE IN STRUCTURE SEEN IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT SUGGEST THIS IS A 75 KNOT SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE REMAINS OVER THE SYSTEM WHICH IS CREATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TY FRANCISCO IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM IS DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE STR. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THIS WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES SOUTH OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 12, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND MODIFY, WHICH WILL FORCE TY 26W TO TURN POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE STR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH OF JAPAN AND STEER TY 26W TO A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. EXTREMELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF LOW VWS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD OUTFLOW WITH AN EXPECTED FURTHER INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WILL ALLOW FOR TY 26W TO REACH OF PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS BY TAU 72. C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 26W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TRACK ALONG COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH OF JAPAN. THE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT VARIANCES IN TRACK AND TRANSLATIONAL SPEED THROUGH TAU 72 ALTHOUGH, THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASED SPREAD AFTERWARDS, AS SOLUTIONS HAVE DIVERGED IN THE EXTENT ON THE NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARDS JAPAN. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE CURRENT WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND THE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS IN THE EXTENDED TAUS.// NNNN NNNN