Issued: 0530hrs Thursday 23rd February 2017
Duty forecaster: Garry Nicholson

Heavy showers for southern Spain

Thursday
Dry weather extends across much of southern Europe under the influence of high pressure. However, a shallow low over north Africa will trigger areas of thundery showers for southern Spain, which may become more extensive during the day. Dry and warm in Portugal, highs of 20C. Plenty of sunshine for Italy and Greece . Generally mild across south-eastern Europe. Cloudy and mild for Alpine regions, but largely dry. Patchy rain for Slovakia and Romania.
A strong storm system moves eastwards across the North Sea into northern-central Europe, bringing severe gales to the Low Countries and northern Germany by afternoon and evening. Possible gusts over 120km/h (80mph). A band of showery rain affects northern France, whilst more persistent rain sweeps across the Netherlands and northern Germany, then Denmark and Poland. Much of southern Norway and Sweden will avoid the storm and see a fair day with light winds, although rain reaches the southern Baltic by evening. Snow showers affect northern Scandinavia, most persistent in Finland.

Friday
Thursday's storm will weaken as it passes east across north-eastern Europe overnight into Friday, but will see rain turn to snow for northern Germany and Poland as cold air drains into the rear of the system. Snow spreads south-east across Poland, and affects the Baltic states for a time, before brighter skies follow from the north-west. Cold northerly winds bring frequent snow to northern Norway, whilst much of Sweden stays dry. Some further snow for Finland.
Meanwhile, across southern Europe, a trough of low pressure brings showers to the western Mediterranean and Italy, whilst much of Spain and Portugal will be dry and sunny. High pressure influences western France bringing a fair day. A cold front moves south into the Alps bringing snow and rain. A developing low over Italy produces a strong Mistral wind late in the day, and will also see rain then snow set in for the northern Balkans. Greece and areas around the Black Sea will stay sunny and mild.