Tropical Storm HAIMA Advisory vie, 21-10

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA) WARNING NR 26//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 91 NM EAST OF HONG
KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A RECENT PGTW SATELLITE
FIX, A 202304Z 37 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE, AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM HONG KONG.
THE INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND
AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING
AGENCIES. TY 25W HAS MAINTAINED A BROAD CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND A
LARGE (40 NM) EYE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
TURN POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY HAS
REMAINED CONSTANT UNDER THE COMPETING INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, DECREASING ALONG-TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND
THE BROAD STORM STRUCTURE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TY 25W WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, MAKING LANDFALL TO THE
EAST OF HONG KONG WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS. NEGLIGIBLE INTENSITY
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO LANDFALL, FOLLOWED BY RAPID
DISSIPATION OVER LAND AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE STEERING RIDGE AXIS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK LIES
NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
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