Tropical Storm SINLAKU Advisory vie, 28-11

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNING
NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (TWENTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO CONSOLIDATE
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKED FURTHER OUT TO SEA WHILE CONVECTIVE BANDING
HAS INCREASED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A RECENT 280009Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED DESPITE AN OVERALL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE. LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE CURRENT POSITION DUE TO THE
POOR DEFINITION OF THE LLCC AS SEEN IN THE MSI LOOP AND THE
MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND THE
INCREASE IN STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 21W REMAINS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. TS 21W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 21W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WHICH
WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS INTO THE
MORE OPEN WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS THE COAST OF VIETNAM AND WILL
RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS INLAND. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
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Rastros de la tormenta vie, 28-11

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