Tropical Storm FOURTEEN Advisory dom, 02-08

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
399 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE CENTER. MSI NOW SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
FLARING OVER THE CENTER AND EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A
020751Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A LINEAR BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDING, HOWEVER, THE
020751Z SSMIS WIND PRODUCT INDICATES A SMALL CORE OF 25 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS. THEREFORE, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS
BASED ON THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE AND SSMIS WIND PRODUCT. THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED
CENTER AND LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE, WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. TD
14W IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL STR,
WHICH EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS IS LEADING TO A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 14W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL STR.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEGRADE AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, THEREFORE, TD 14W SHOULD WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.//
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