Tropical Storm LINFA Advisory mar, 07-07

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (LINFA) WARNING NR
21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (LINFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 287 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS  THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY DEEPENED EVEN AS THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS PARTIALLY SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE
RAGGED LLCC FEATURE IN THE 062309Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VWS
PARTIALLY OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, A TROUGH
IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM.
THESE ARE EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 10W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR. MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
LIMIT INTENSIFICATION WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS NEAR TAU 36
AS VWS ABATES SLIGHTLY. AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD THEN WESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS. CONCURRENTLY, GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST WITH DISSIPATION BY TAU 72 OVER LAND. THE
OVERALL JTWC FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW DUE TO THE COMPLEX
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND POSSIBLE WEAK DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION
WITH TY 09W NEAR TAU 72.//
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